Real value of property ‘an inexact science’

In recent months, several economists have forecast that the year 2021 would result in strong growth in Australian real estate prices amid record low-interest rates.

However, several brokers have suggested that property valuations from lenders are often “vastly under” market valuations, while hotly competitive auctions mean that the true value of property might currently be over-inflated.

Raine & Horne Group’s executive chairman, Angus Raine, has conceded that predicting market value remains an “inexact science”.

According to Mr Raine, market value ultimately “depends squarely on what a specific purchaser will pay”.

Moving forward, low-interest rates, economic performance and government stimulus will certainly influence growth in value, he suggested, but scarcity will be one of the biggest factors that will influence market value and pricing moving forward.

“Whether the scarcity relates to the house or land size, the type of property, construction quality, unique view or location, making price predictions is challenging,” the chairman commented.

As property markets recover from the impact of COVID-19, sudden market movements, whether upturns or downturns, can influence pricing as well, according to Mr Raine.

However, he added that “this is not to say that market valuations are worthless”.

“For properties where scarcity and market movements are not in play, a real estate agent is clearly in a better position to predict buyer behaviour,” Mr Raine said.

Agents and valuers often look into buyer interest, or the number of groups inspecting the property, as well as past sales data as basis for their valuations.

Determining the ‘right price’

Apart from a range of broad factors, including scarcity, market movements and economic performance, individual buyers and sellers will also impact the final price.

According to Mr Raine, the “amount of cash at the buyer’s disposal, a property’s proximity to a buyer’s extended family, and the perceptions of the suburb or town” could affect pricing.

Similarly, the vendor’s urgency to acquire cash may influence the market value of the property just as much.

“When some of these factors, including scarcity, come into play, the value put on a property by a buyer can be affected by anything from 10 to 40 per cent.”

The ultimate determining factor for property value then, according to the executive chairman?

“An auction is the true litmus test for determining the real value of a property,” Mr Raine concluded.

What are your thoughts on property valuations? Have you experienced inflated or below-market valuations recently?

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Written by reporter

Last Updated: 09 March 2022

Published: 25 February 2021