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New population predictions released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicate a dire need to increase new dwelling construction, according to a leading economist.
In a medium growth scenario, the ABS predicts the Australian population will double by 2075, while in a high growth scenario, the population is expected to double as early as 2058.
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AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said policy makers should take note of the predictions and begin to address the shortage of housing now.
“A rough estimate is that over the last decade we have already underbuilt by around 10,000 homes; the new ABS data simply shows the problem is only going to get worse,” he said.
More available land and less red tape are needed to address the problem, according to Mr Oliver.
“We need to pick up the pace of building new dwellings. We need to release more land and we need to make the whole process easier for developers and for those wanting to build their homes themselves,” he said
Cameron Kusher, RP data research analyst, said more should be done to encourage Australians to live outside the capital cities.
Based on the population projections, by 2061, 65.8 per cent of the total national population will live in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.
“In each of these cities there are already affordability barriers for certain home buyer cohorts,” Mr Kusher said. “In my opinion, we should be looking to a decentralisation of the population.”
According to Mr Kusher, technological advances have already reduced the need for a centralised population and will continue to do so in the future.
“The biggest challenge of course is employment in regional areas. However, with the advent of high speed internet and major infrastructure projects such as the National Broadband Network, we will hopefully see the nature of work change, with more telecommuting taking place and less focus on physically being located within an office,” he said.
“Alternatively, many businesses do not necessarily need to be located within a major capital city. Perhaps governments could incentivise major businesses to locate their headquarters or major offices outside of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane or Perth,” he said.
Mr Kusher also questioned current spending on transport infrastructure, saying more needs to be done to support the growing population and expanding cities.
“Transport infrastructure is typically already insufficient. Without appropriate investment levels, how much worse would it be by 2061?” he said.
