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Following six consecutive monthly declines, the labour market is just five per cent above the lowest level reached during the global financial crisis, according to ANZ.
The monthly ANZ jobs advertising report has shown a two per cent drop in August following a 1.1 per cent fall in July.
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The number of job advertisements was 19 per cent lower than the same time last year.
State by state, ads in South Australia and Tasmania appear to be flattening while in Western Australia, Queensland and the ACT the numbers have continued to fall relatively sharply.
ANZ’s Australian chief economist Ivan Colhoun said the figures are pointing to a softening in the labour market.
“Job ads and other economic indicators suggest little evidence of a pick-up in business confidence and hiring intentions, consistent with the unemployment rate continuing to trend modestly higher in the near term,” Mr Colhoun said.
“However, it is worth noting that while job ads have continued to fall, the pace of monthly decline appears to have moderated a little in recent months.”
Chief economist for AMP Capital, Shane Oliver, told The Adviser that while he believed the Reserve Bank (RBA) was likely to be finished in its easing cycle, indicators such as the labour market were key to forecasting when the RBA will begin to raise the cash rate.
“I believe we have hit the bottom… but before we see a rate hike we want to see clear evidence that increased housing demand is leading to a pick-up in the broader economy.
“In terms of the economic indicators to look at, I will be looking for stronger consumer confidence, stronger business confidence, pick-up in retail sales, signs that non-mining investment is picking up and stronger figures in the job market.”
Mr Oliver believes that if indicators such as the ANZ Job advertisements were to turn around in the next few months, we could see a rate hike as early as the second half of 2014.
