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Stronger than expected employment figures in November are more likely to be statistical noise than the start of a jobs recovery, says AMP’s chief economist.
While employment rose by a much stronger than expected 21,000 jobs in November, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said forward indicators continue to paint a bleak picture for the Australian labour market.
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According to the ANZ Jobs Advertisement series, job ads fell by 0.8 per cent in November.
This month's ABS employment data revealed unemployment rose by less than 0.1 per cent in November to 5.8 per cent, although it is strongly tipped to increase in the New Year.
The ABS monthly seasonally-adjusted aggregate hours worked series showed a decrease in November of 0.7 per cent.
“While our assessment remains that the economy will pick up pace a bit next year, it will take a while for this to show up in improved jobs growth,” Mr Oliver said.
“We continue to expect the RBA to leave interest rates on hold, but the risks in the short term are still skewed towards more rate cuts, particularly if recent bad news regarding Holden and Qantas adversely affects confidence,” he said.
