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Australia’s leading economists unanimously expect the Reserve Bank to leave the official cash rate on hold when it makes its announcement later today.
Only two of the 31 leading economists polled in the finder.com.au Reserve Bank Survey – Jonathan Chancellor from Property Observer and AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver – predict the cash rate to fall in November this year, while 94 per cent do not think the cash rate will move again in 2015.
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However, there is some consensus that changes are in the pipeline, with 60 per cent predicting a rate rise next year, while 40 per cent predict a rise will occur beyond 2016.
Of those who expect the cash rate to increase in 2016, about half predict this will occur in the last quarter of the year.
“Given that inflation remains well under control, the Reserve Bank is likely to wait to see how volatility in global markets plays out and how this is likely to affect growth going forward,” ME Bank’s John Caelli said.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster said the non-mining sector is starting to improve, so there is no reason for the RBA to do anything yet. “The Reserve Bank is in 'sit and watch' mode,” he said.
Economists were, however, divided when asked about the future of the Australian dollar.
Of those who answered this section of the survey, over three quarters (76 per cent) expect the Australian dollar to fall below US$0.65 this cycle. However, they were torn on quite when it will hit its lowest point.
Just 14 per cent (4 of 29 respondents) predict the Australian dollar will hit its lowest point against the US dollar by the end of this calendar year.
The majority – 72 per cent – of experts expects this to happen in 2016; in fact, 44 per cent of experts believe it will happen in the first half of 2016. Just 14 per cent of experts think it will bottom further in the future and do not expect the Australian dollar to plummet to its lowest point until beyond 2016.
[Related: Two-tiered mortgage market here to stay]
