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ISCOVER
Staff Reporter
The number of job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers was broadly unchanged in November, enhancing the case for another interest rate cut.
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ANZ's latest job advertisement series found annual growth in total job advertisements slowed to 0.2 per cent year on year.
Newspaper job ads were 0.6 per cent higher in November, while internet job advertising was unchanged.
Newspaper advertising is now 15.9 per cent lower than a year ago, while internet advertising is 1 per cent higher over the same period, in part reflecting the continuing trend towards advertising online.
ANZ head of Australian economics and property research Ivan Colhoun said the tentative slowdown in the pace of job advertising decline, if sustained, is an encouraging development as it would signal only mild upward pressure on the unemployment rate, as well as less pressure on Australian interest rates.
"The negative trend in job advertisements points towards only modest employment gains for the Australian economy over coming months. Indeed, the current trend rate of employment growth is unlikely to be fast enough to absorb the forecast growth in the labour force over coming months. As a result, ANZ forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 5.5 per cent by mid-2012. The unemployment rate is then expected to fall at a modest pace, supported by strong mining and infrastructure investment," he said.
According to Mr Colhoun, the Australian economy continues to experience large and conflicting cross currents.
"Mining and infrastructure investment is rising strongly at the same time as the global economic outlook has continued to deteriorate. The European sovereign debt crisis and weaker Chinese outlook are likely to increasingly weigh on local interest rate decisions, notwithstanding the strength in investment. Together with a more benign inflation outlook, ANZ on balance expects an 'insurance' rate cut of 25bps by the RBA."
