Business confidence has improved for the second month in a row albeit at depressed levels, NAB’s Monthly Business Survey and Economic Outlook has revealed
Business conditions are also marginally higher but still trending down in all areas, with employment a key area of weakness. According to the bank, the confidence reading is now more in line with outcomes and less driven by fear.
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However the overall Survey still points to falling demand in Q1, highlighting further negative growth.
The bank’s global GDP forecast remains unchanged at -1 per cent. The Australian GDP forecast for 2009 also remains unchanged at -1 per cent and +0.9 per cent in 2010.
“These forecasts reflect the current poor starting point, together with weaker exports and business investment given the global outlook.
“[Rate] cuts going forward will be data dependent and likely to be delivered in 25 point moves. Overall we still see the forecasts requiring a cash rate down to around 2 per cent by late 2009,” the bank said.